This Week's Mortgage Rates

Two weeks ago rates hit a 3-year spring low at 6.23%. Now we are at 6.37% — a 14-basis-point climb in two weeks. The Freddie Mac PMMS for the week ending May 7, 2026 shows the 30-year fixed at 6.37% and the 15-year at 5.72%. Both are up from last week. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed to roughly 4.386% by May 8, dragging mortgages with it. Chief Economist Sam Khater called the increase a reflection of market pricing shifting away from near-term Fed cut expectations. (Freddie Mac PMMS, May 7, 2026)

Here is what actually moved rates this week: First, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.38% after a soft jobs report reignited fears that the Fed is stuck — not hiking, not cutting, just waiting. Second, Middle East conflict risk pushed oil prices higher, which feeds into inflation expectations. Third, the April FOMC meeting reinforced the wait-and-see posture — no cut, no guidance, just Powell repeating "patience." Bond markets hate uncertainty, so they sold off. That is your rate move right there.

The jumbo story is getting wilder. NerdWallet as of May 9 shows the 30-year jumbo at 6.18% — down 3 bps from last week, while conventional went UP. The inversion gap is now 19 basis points: jumbo at 6.18% versus conventional at 6.37%. That is not normal. For two consecutive weeks jumbo has been cheaper than conventional, and the spread is widening. If you are buying above $832,750, you are getting a genuine discount right now. Portfolio lenders are fighting hard for high-balance business in Florida luxury markets. (NerdWallet, May 9, 2026)

FHA at 6.27% (Bankrate, May 9) is now a full 10 basis points below conventional at 6.37%. That is rare too. FHA is supposed to carry a small premium because of the mortgage insurance factor, but right now it is the better deal for well-qualified first-time buyers with 3.5% down. If you are sitting on the fence, FHA deserves a serious look this week. (Bankrate FHA Loan Rates, May 9, 2026)

Bankrate Florida data shows the state 30-year conventional at 6.47% (6.52% APR) and 15-year at 5.80%. Florida runs slightly above the national PMMS average, same reason as always — property insurance costs push lender risk adjustments higher. VA ticked up to 6.46% (6.50% APR) from last weeks 6.43%. Nothing dramatic, just following the broader Treasury drift. (Bankrate Florida Mortgage Rates; Bankrate VA Loan Rates, May 9, 2026)

Year-over-year perspective still matters. The same week in 2025 was 6.76%. We are still 39 basis points below that. Yes, the spring low window of 6.23% has narrowed. But 6.37% is not a panic level. It is 67 basis points below the 2025 peak of 7.04%. The question is not whether rates are high — they are not. The question is whether they go back down to 6.23% or lower, and when.

For Florida buyers, the math still works. On a $350,000 purchase at 6.37%, a 1-point buydown takes your first-year rate to roughly 5.37% — saving about $205 per month. Sellers in markets like Jacksonville and the I-4 corridor are still offering concessions because inventory is up roughly 20% year-over-year. You have negotiating power. Use it.

The next major catalyst is the April CPI report on May 13. If core inflation comes in below 3.2%, bond markets will rally and rates will reverse. If it prints hot, expect 6.37% to hold or climb toward 6.45%. The Fed meets again June 17-18. No one expects a cut at that meeting either. The earliest realistic cut window is September, and that depends on two or three consecutive soft inflation prints.